Continuing from the last time, about "the pattern that sales forecast is off".This time we will take up the case of the street store.

I would like to talk about how to view the traffic volume in front of the store, based on a scary story that I myself once had a painful experience when I greatly missed the sales forecast.

Relationship between store front traffic and store sales

What will happen to store sales if the traffic in front of the store is low?In other words, if you are a store or company that is weak in attracting customers on your own, you will not be able to expect high sales.Therefore, low-traffic locations should be avoided.

Conversely, if there is a lot of traffic in front of the store, it can be considered that the risk of not being able to attract customers is low, and the risk of opening a store and failing is low.Therefore, places with a large amount of traffic tend to be preferred.So far, I think that's probably the case.

However, can we expect high sales in general just because there is a lot of traffic?That's not necessarily true.

There are several points, and even if the amount of traffic in front of the store and the number of passers-by in front of the property are almost the same, "something" may be different.Depending on that “something”, it may or may not sell.

The purpose of measuring traffic in front of the store is to use it for forecasting sales after the store opens.I tried to show the relationship between the traffic volume in front of the store and the store sales in a matrix.

Relationship between store front traffic and store sales

The vertical axis indicates whether store sales are high or low, and the horizontal axis indicates whether traffic in front of the store is high or low.If the traffic in front of the store is low, the sales will be low, and if the traffic in front of the store is high, the sales will increase.

The store with low traffic and high sales in front of the store on the upper left is considered to be a very ideal and excellent store with various conditions such as good location and wide frontage.

The problem is the bottom right.Although there is a large amount of traffic in front of the store, sales at the store are low.In such a location, as a store development, we want to avoid opening a store.

Digression ~ A failure story that I once exceeded my predictions ~

A related digression.

I can say it now, but... it's a story.Personally, about 20 years ago, I made a huge mistake in my sales forecast, and I still remember that time well.

There was a facility with outstanding ability to attract customers.We decided to open a store in a section on a strong flow line connecting the facility and the nearest station.The sales forecast value was about 3000 million yen, but the actual sales were less than half of that.

At that time, there was nothing similar to the existing store, and it was an irregular case, so there was no choice.But in any case, it is a failure that should not happen.I thought a lot about the cause, trying to learn a lesson from this.

So what is that facility?Hint: Osaka.Even now.It is a very strong facility as a destination.

The correct answer is Universal Studios Japan.

I have not been to USJ yet because I was so scared because I missed the forecast of that store.I don't think I will go there again in the future.

This is an aside, but I would like to talk about this as a lesson.

It is NG to make judgments based solely on the number of traffic in front of the store.

As a development team, we want to avoid the situation where the product does not sell well against the sales forecast.It's the worst when you say it will sell but it doesn't.When you think about it, you shouldn't take the number of traffic in front of the store with a grain of salt.

What should I do if I don't take it with a grain of salt?That said, the numbers need to be adjusted.Sometimes it's necessary to be a little more conservative with forecasted sales.Based on that, let's make an appropriate sales forecast.

So what are the aspects of adjustment?So, I would like to introduce two important things.

Viewpoint XNUMX: Nature of traffic at all

Observe not only the number of people passing in front of your property, but also the nature and quality of those passing by.

For example, the purpose of pedestrian traffic.If the purpose is clearly defined, if it is too clear, the walking speed will be faster.If you do so, the probability that you will stop by the store on the side of walking at that fast speed will decrease.

Also check the width of the front road and aisles.In places where the width of the road in front is very wide, there are places where people pass by, like a large stream of a river.Naturally, the number of traffic in front of the store itself is
It's going to be a lot, but it's not that kind of thing that sales will rise in proportion to it.

For example, between Universal Studios Japan and the station.Also, there is a major street in Sendai City called "Sendai Ichiban-cho", and I have a similar bitter memory in the past, and it is a place that comes back to me when I talk about it.

Viewpoint XNUMX: Positional relationship between property and TG

"TG” was the word.Although it is a factor derived from traffic, it is necessary to carefully consider the positional relationship between the property and this TG.

Universal Studios Japan is one example, but it is a facility where passers-by have an extremely strong sense of purpose, and the power to move towards the facility at full speed, as if they were the first to go to the facility. Be careful around facilities with

In addition, it is a case where the action is completed in the facility.After all the errands are done, people come out.Strict caution is required in such cases.If you don't stop by on your way in and out on your way home, you may end up just passing by in front of the store.

Consider the above two points of view.

Summary

I've talked about the traffic in front of the store, but the perspective other than the number of people is also important.

In particular, when there is a TG and another TG nearby, it is important to pay attention to the flow line that connects the two TGs in the shortest distance and becomes a simple movement route.Many people pass in front of the property, but if they pass by at a very high speed, it is necessary to consider whether the prediction should be adjusted in consideration of the qualitative characteristics of the flow line.

The story this time was about opening a street store, but the same thing can be said about roadside properties.In the next blog, I would like to explain how it is in the case of roadside properties.

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